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The thing about fantasy football is that after a while you start to develop favorites. Favorite sleepers, favorite mid-round picks, favorite quarterback-receiver stacks – and, after doing enough of them, a favorite spot to pick in the draft. It’s the place where you feel you can maximize your pick through the early rounds based on the rhythms of where players are going and where the talent cliffs are at in each stage of the draft.

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This year, for me, the best place to pick in the draft is at the No. 5 spot.

(That’s based on being in a 12-team, half-PPR league, and who is likely to be available based on their average draft position)

The first reason, obviously, is because of who that spot can land you in the first round. While Justin Jefferson is the clear-cut No. 1 pick in fantasy right now, picking fifth gets you a chance to land one of the elite fantasy options before the first substantive talent cliff. Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Christian McCaffrey are all usually gone with the first three picks. That puts you in a situation where you can sit at No. 5 and have the option to click on Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, or Austin Ekeler. For me that really comes down to Kupp and Kelce. Kupp had the highest points-per-game average of any wide receiver last season, before he got hurt nine games into the year. Kelce is by far the best tight end in the game and he had 88.9 more points than the No. 2 tight end in half-PPR scoring — which is about the same difference as between RB1 and RB7 last season.

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When your pick comes around again at No. 20, there are a few great options to chose from. There is an outside chance to put together the Kansas City Chiefs stack with Kelce and Patrick Mahomes, though that might be harder to do in non-best ball formats since Mahomes has an ADP of 15 in season-long leagues. This is around the area where we see another wide receiver cliff, with New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson (19 ADP) and Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.3) getting drafted around that spot — they could make up for missing out on an elite wide receiver in round 1 if you took Kelce or decided to go running back with Ekeler. There’s also a slight chance that Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard (18) drops to 20, giving you a chance to draft a high-upside back who could end up as a Top 3 RB this season.

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The No. 20 spot could also allow you to dive into one of the elite quarterbacks. Josh Allen (19.7) and Jalen Hurts (22) should still be on the board. Each has their benefits. but taking Hurts at 20 allows you a chance to then stack him with DeVonta Smith (28.3) the next time your pick comes around.

If Smith isn’t there for you in the third, there are still a few intriguing options. Your next two picks, No. 29 and No. 44, bookend the “running back dead zone” range. Depending on your strategy, you can go with another WR at 29. Aside from Smith, Chris Olave (28.3) seems to, almost improbably, still be available at No. 29; as does Tee Higgins (31.7). Higgins, Olave, and Smith are all going about 5-10 spots higher in Underdog Fantasy ADP (though that is a best ball league), so here is some room for a little fantasy draft arbitrage if you think the Underdog ADP is sharper. The receivers available with your next pick don’t seem to have the same WR1 potential, but if you’re feeling good with your receivers at this point, you can pivot to Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews (28.7) or QB Lamar Jackson (33.7).

The choices get a little squishier at No. 44. Some interesting QB choices come onto the board with Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (45.3) and Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields (45). Herbert should benefit from a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, another weapon with Quentin Johnston, and hopefully just a healthier season after last year’s rib injury. It’s possible you might get lucky and have Jacksonsville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley still available to you — he’s going at 41 in ADP right now — and if fate smiles on you like that then you can wait and try to grab Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (55.3) at No. 53. Dameon Pierce (43.7) is certainly tantalizing at No. 44, especially with Kenneth Walker and Joe Mixon going ahead of him in the fourth round but without the same job security in Walker’s case and without Mixon’s signs of decline.

If you’re wary of taking a QB in the early rounds, then Lawrence seems like a nice choice in the fifth-round. He’s not a volume runner like Fields or Jackson or even Allen but he did start running more during the second half last season, with five games of 26 or more rush yards in the last 11 games of 2022, including the playoffs. He seems primed to take another step forward this season, with Ridley on the field, after halving his interception rate last season and more than doubling his TD rate. Perhaps it’s a clunky comparison but Carson Wentz had his MVP-caliber season in his second season with Doug Pederson.

There should be a good chance that Brandon Aiyuk (67.7) and Mike Williams (68.7) are both still on the board with the No. 68 pick and either would be a great choice as your WR3 if you’ve gone with a two RB and one QB start. Williams should have a high upside if Moore can get Herbert throwing downfield again; Herbert had the third-lowest average intended air yards last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, while Dak Prescott averaged 2.1 more air yards per pass. Dak Prescott, Moore’s last QB, had a higher average intended air yards than Herbert in each of the last three seasons. Williams, of course, is at his best on deep balls but our Daniel Popper reports he’s also playing some in the slot now, which should help with reception volume.

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Two favorites at No. 77: Bills RB James Cook (78.7), who might sneakily be a three-down back this season with uninspiring job competition in Buffalo, and Diontae Johnson (83), who if he had caught even six touchdowns last season — still below his career average of his first three seasons — would have finished with more fantasy points than Chris Godwin.

And a few more later-round thoughts, which are harder to call because it’ll depend on how your roster looks up until that point:

— If Jaxon Smith-Njigba (92.7) is around in the eighth round somehow — even with the injury — take him.

— I’ve rarely been taking any tight end in the top 100 picks outside of Travis Kelce. Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku (96.3) is about the place to start if he’s there at No. 101 (Zac Jackson is giving him a vote of confidence, too). If not, hope that Chicago Bears RB Khalil Herbert will be there.

— Maybe this is the lost Jets fan in me but Elijah Moore (115.7) seems like he’s headed for an interesting season in Cleveland as the No. 2 receiver. He’s projected to be available at No. 116. Or take Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet (113) if he drops.

— The Baltimore Ravens have a new offensive coordinator who seems to want to play faster and pass more. They also have a receiving corps with a 30-year-old, habitually injured Odell Beckham Jr. and another starting receiver just now getting into 7-on-7 drills. The reviews for Zay Flowers (125.7) have been tremendous so far, so would it be a surprise if he ends up being the top Ravens receiver this season (after tight end Mark Andrews, of course)? He’s projected to still be there at No. 125.

Falcons RB Tyler Algier and Steelers RB Jaylen Warren are both great picks as running backs who could take over in case the starter gets hurt on a run-heavy offense. Oh, and Warren might even take work from Najee Harris anyway as he’s crept into his preseason opener first-team snaps. Listen to SI’s Conor Orr and keep an eye on Warren.

— My favorite late-round picks: Not kickers and defenses. Keep taking position players until the end and save picking up those two positions until you hit the free agent list the morning before you have to set the lineup for Week 1.

(Top photo: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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